The Oscars are Here! Predictions 2016

It's Oscar Day!!!!! I'm so excited! I haven't been able to update the blog this Awards Season the way I wanted to or have done in past years. (Sorry, I'm taking two classes and I've been a bit overwhelmed with homework.) But, I'm back for my favorite day of the year and the main attraction of Awards Season.

I wasn't able to see all of the nominated movies this year but saw all of the nominees in the major categories and all of the shorts. There were 9 movies I wasn't able to see but I started with 46 so I'm happy with what I was able to, though I really wish I'd had time to watch Straight Outta Compton.

So without further ado, my Oscar Predictions:

Category	Who will win	Who I want to win
Best Picture	Spotlight. I’ve been going back and forth between The Revenant and Spotlight for weeks but I’m going with my gut on this one. When I saw Spotlight last fall I thought it had a good chance at being Best Picture so I’m sticking with my original intuition. There’s also a chance that this could go to The Big Short which won at the Producer’s Guild Awards.	Three of my favorite movies of 2015 are up for Best Picture (The Martian, Spotlight, Brooklyn) and I enjoyed watching most of the nominees (minus Mad Max and The Revenant—neither is really my thing). And while I’ll be hoping Spotlight wins for my Oscar pool my secret hope is an impossible win for Brooklyn. It was my very favorite movie of last year and I know it doesn’t have a chance of winning but if it miraculously did I would be ecstatic.
Best Actor	Leonardo DiCaprio. There is no doubt in my mind that this is Leo’s year to win. In a year of weaker lead actor performances his is by far the most outstanding and everyone thinks he’s due a win.	The Revenant was not my favorite movie (I am not a fan of lost in the wilderness tales and it reminded me too much of Jack London stories and Jeremiah Johnson) but Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance was the best part. He’s been such a solid actor for over 20 years and I’d watch him in just about anything so of course I’d love to see him win.
Best Actress	Brie Larson. Here’s another easy pick. At the start of Awards Season I thought this might be a fight between Brie and Saoirse Ronan but at this point Larson is a lock to win tonight. She’s been so charming this season too so I’m looking forward to seeing her acceptance speech this evening.	I will secretly be hoping for an Oscar shock win for Saoirse Ronan even though it won’t happen. Brie Larson gives an amazing performance in Room but Saoirse Ronan is transcendent in Brooklyn. She shows so much in just a look.
Best Supporting Actor	Sylvester Stallone. He is the clear sentimental choice.	I was surprised by how good Stallone was in Creed but I’d much rather see either Mark Rylance or Mark Ruffalo take home the gold tonight. I’ve said it before but Rylance was so great in Bridge of Spies and I love a middle aged British man.
Best Supporting Actress	Outside of Best Picture this category has been the one I’ve been most unsure about but I’m going to go with Alicia Vikander. It’s just as likely that Kate Winslet could win though. But I think Vikander has the edge because people liked her body of work this past year.	I really liked Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs and knew she’d get nominated when I walked out of the theatre. However, Alicia Vikander was absolutely heartbreaking in The Danish Girl and I thought she was great in Ex Machina too.
Best Director	Alejandro G. Iñárritu. It’s nearly unprecedented to have back to back directing wins but Iñárritu won at the director’s guild and in the second year of #OscarsSoWhite I have a feeling the voters will want to reward the most high profile diverse nominee in a major category. There’s also a chance that a sentimental vote could go to George Miller.	I’ll be rooting for Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and I’d also be happy to see Adam McKay win considering The Big Short was such a departure from his previous broad comedies.
Best Adapted Screenplay	The Big Short. Since Adam McKay is not going to win as Best Director I think this is where The Academy will reward him.	Of course I’m going to root for Brooklyn every chance I get. Plus I love Nick Hornby.
Best Original Screenplay	Spotlight. It won at the writers guild and I think similarly to Adam McKay, this is where Tom McCarthy will get his win.	I thought the script of Spotlight was great so I hope this wins.
Best Cinematography	The Revenant. I think Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezki is going to win his third Oscar for cinematography in a row.	I think all of the nominees in this category are strong and I really liked the cinematography in Sicario and Carol. But again, like with Leo, even though I didn’t particularly like The Revenant, the cinematography was breathtaking and considering what he did with Gravity and Birdman the past two years respectively Lubezki is at the top of his game.
Best Animated Feature	Inside Out. Pixar and Disney are nearly impossible to beat in this category and a lot of people loved the nostalgic tragedy of Inside Out.	I only managed to see 3 of the 5 nominees in this category but if I were voting on tonight’s awards my pick would have been Anomalisa. It’s far too strange a movie to actually win but I thought Inside Out was not the best that Pixar has done.
Best Documentary Feature	Amy. The past few years The Academy has either awarded super political or showbiz docs and with nothing quite like CitezenFour this year I think Amy will come away with the gold.	I really liked all of the documentary nominees but I thought The Look of Silence was particularly haunting and highlights a part of history most people don’t know about.
Best Documentary Short	Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah. I think the other short with a chance of winning in this category is Body Team 12 but when in doubt choose the doc about the Holocaust.	Again, like with the Documentary Feature I liked all of these documentaries but my favorite was Chau, Beyond the Lines because it was one of the only ones that was hopeful at the end.
Best Live Action Short	Shok. This was the Live Action Short that struck me the most.	Like the Documentary Shorts, these were mostly very heavy but I thought even though Shok was devastating it was wonderful.
Best Animated Short	World of Tomorrow. This dark comedy is the most original in animation and subject matter.	I’m going to root for World of Tomorrow as well but I liked all of these except Prologue.
Best Song	“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground. People want to see Lady Gaga win an Oscar.	To be honest I really don’t care about this one this year. I just don’t want that lame Sam Smith Bond movie song to win.
Best Score	The Hateful Eight. This is Ennio Morricone’s night.	My favorite score this year was Carter Burwell’s for Carol. It felt like another character in the film.
Best Costume Design	I have to admit I’m really not sure about this one but after the win at the BAFTAs I’m going to go with Mad Max: Fury Road.	I think Carol should get this because the clothes are absolutely gorgeous in that movie and I really don’t want Mad Max to win anything.
Best Production Design	Mad Max: Fury Road. I think this could go somewhere else maybe but I think this will be part of the technical sweep for Mad Max.	I think Carol should have been nominated but without that I’d much rather see The Danish Girl win than Mad Max.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling	Mad Max: Fury Road.	Mad Max is going to win but I’d rather see The Revenant take it.
Best Foreign Language Film	Son of Saul. In a strong year for Foreign Language Film this is a powerful and original movie.	I’ve seen lots of Holocaust movies but I’ve never seen anything like Son of Saul before.
Best Visual Effects	Star Wars: The Force Awakens.  This might be my biggest mistake but I really think this might be the one win for Star Wars despite the technical push for Mad Max.	I think Star Wars: The Force Awakens should have gotten a Best Picture nod so I’m rooting for Star Wars all the way here.
Best Editing	I really don’t know with this one but I’m going to guess The Revenant.	Again, I don’t know but I’ll go with rooting for Star Wars: The Force Awakens or Spotlight.
Best Sound Mixing	Mad Max: Fury Road.	I never know what to do with sound. So Star Wars?
Best Sound Editing	Mad Max: Fury Road.	I repeat.

Well, it's now only a little over an hour to the big show. Can't wait to see what happens! I'm leaving for Florida for spring break in the morning so won't have a chance to write a follow up to the Oscars for a week or two but feel free to follow me on Twitter @mandaailey to see my reactions during the commercials tonight.