The Big Day/Predictions

Today is the big day! I can hardly contain my excitement.

My tradition for Oscar Day is to sleep in a bit, but not too late. Wake up mid-morning and watch any Nominated movies I have left. I read up on my Oscar editions of Entertainment Weekly and The Hollywood Reporter. E! starts airing Oscar related programming in the early afternoon. I usually let this start to record for an hour or two before I start watching because I fast forward through the parts where they dress random people up in gowns and last year there was even a tiger involved for some reason. I start watching live for the red carpet and finalize my predictions during this time. When ABC starts airing their red carpet I switch back and forth with E!'s coverage for a bit. E!'s is always better though; they just do this more often. Finally the show starts and it's magical.

This year, my only deviation from my past tradition is that I firmed up my predictions earlier in the day so I could share them here. So without further ado, here are my final Oscar Predictions.

Category	Who will win	Who I want to win
Best Picture	12 Years a Slave. This is an incredibly close race and many are predicting Gravity, but I think it will win in more of the technical races leaving Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave.	This was a strong year for film and I liked all of the Nominees except Captain Phillips. If I could vote on my own Oscar ballot though, my choice would be Nebraska. I think 12 Years a Slave should win, but Nebraska was my favorite.
Best Actor	Matthew McConaughey. This one is pretty much a lock. The only award he didn’t win this season was the BAFTA but he wasn’t even nominated.	All of the performances in this category were award worthy. My favorites were Leonardo DiCaprio and Chiwetel Ejiofor. Both were tour de force performances, but I’m gonna choose Chiwetel Ejiofor.
Best Actress	Cate Blancett. This is another easily predictable category. Blanchett has won every major award for her role in Blue Jasmine.	Cate Blanchett is fantastic. While I thought her performance was great, I found the movie to be wanting.  My favorite performance though, was Amy Adams.
Best Supporting Actor	Jared Leto. There’s no doubt he will win in this category.	I have to choose Jered Leto as well. I was pleasantly surprised by how great Jonah Hill was in Wolf of Wall Street, but Leto completely disappears into his role.
Best Supporting Actress	Jennifer Lawrence. I’m taking a risk on this one because it might be Lupita Nyong’o. But I bet against Lawrence last year and was wrong.	This was a hard decision to make. Lupita Nyong’o is amazing in her role, but there’s something about her that I find un-genuine (and I really disliked her attitude during the BAFTAs). So, I’m going to stick with Jennifer Lawrence.
Best Director	Alfonso Cauron. Just as Ang Lee won last year for directing a technical wonder, so will Cuaron.	Alexander Payne is quickly becoming one of my favorite directors. Nebraska was beautiful and it’s a gutsy choice to shoot a film in black in white when it’s not a period piece.
Best Adapted Screenplay	12 Years a Slave. The WGA Award went to Captain Phillips, but 12 Years a Slave has been winning a lot of the others.	I think it would be pretty cool if Steve Coogan won for Philomena, but I have to go with Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater for Before Midnight. I love this film trilogy and they deserve some love for keeping the story of these characters fresh for nearly two decades.
Best Original Screenplay	Her. Spike Jonze wrote a truly original story. There’s also a chance David O. Russell may win for American Hustle as he did at the BAFTAs.	Spike Jonze wrote a beautiful and thought provoking script. I have to choose Her.
Best Cinematography	Gravity. Gravity has pretty much swept the awards for this category.	I do think Gravity’s cinematography is great and should win, but I would choose Prisoners because it was my favorite movie of 2013 and this was its’ single Nomination.
Best Animated Feature	Frozen. There’s not really a contest here.	I saw all but one of the Nominees (Ernest & Celestine) in this category and I don’t know that this was the strongest year for Animated films. That said, I’d pick The Wind Rises because at least it isn’t computer animated and it’s Hayao Miyazaki’s swan song.
Best Documentary Feature	20 Feet From Stardom. It’s the lone “feel good” Nominee and is about show biz. There’s still a chance The Act of Killing could take it though.	I really liked 20 Feet From Stardom, but The Act of Killing is the more “important” film.
Best Documentary Short	The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life. A film about the oldest living Holocaust survivor (at the time it was filmed) who survived because she was a concert pianist. Of course this will win.	I saw three of the five nominees and thought The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life was the best.
Best Live Action Short	Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything). There is a chance the more sentimental vote could go to Helium.	I did watch all of these and Helium really moved me, but Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything) was stunning. The filmmakers made a woman’s final flight with her children from her abusive husband feel like a Hitchcockian thriller.
Best Animated Short	Get a Horse! It was the short before Frozen so it’s been the most widely seen short.	I saw all of these as well and I really like Room on the Broom from the same filmmakers who made The Gruffalo a few years ago, but the best was Mr. Hublot.
Best Song	“Let it Go” from Frozen. It’s won everything else.	I would be happy if any of the Nominees in this category won, but I’ll be rooting for “The Moon Song” from Her because I want to see Karen O win an Oscar.
Best Score	Gravity. It’s been winning everything.	As I’ve written before, I really didn’t like Gravity’s score so my choice is Her.
Best Costume Design	The Great Gatsby. It’s a race between the period dramas for this one. I might be wrong and American hustle will take it.	Last May I said The Great Gatsby would win so I’m sticking with that.
Best Production Design	The Great Gatsby. The sets were fabulous.	I made the same prediction last May for this as well; The Great Gatsby.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling	Dallas Buyers Club. I just don’t see most of the older members of the Academy voting for either of the other nominees, especially Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa.	Dallas Buyers Club, of course.
Best Foreign Language Film	The Great Beauty. It seems to have the most support and has been praised for being Fellini-esque.	I’ve only seen two of the five nominees in this category, including The Great Beauty. It was a little bizarre and to existential for my taste, so I pick the moving The Broken Circle Breakdown.
Best Visual Effects	Gravity. There’s no doubt here.	I may have had issues with the movie but there’s no denying the visual effects of Gravity.
Best Editing	Gravity. I’m not sure, but I’m going with this one because of the mix of editing performance with Visual Effects.	Editing is one of those categories that I’m never sure what to pick, but I’ll root for 12 Years a Slave.
Best Sound Mixing	Gravity. This had a great balance of sound and silence.	The Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories confound me a bit, so Gravity all around.
Best Sound Editing	Gravity.	Gravity.

Well, that's what I'm sticking to at this point. I saw more Nominated films this year before Oscar night than ever before. The best I've done in years past is getting 19 of 24 Categories correct. Let's see if my extra effort paid off. I hope you all enjoy your Oscar Night! I know I will. Just 30 minutes until the Red Carpet starts!

(I'll be live Tweeting the Red Carpet if you want to follow along @MandaAiley)