I wasn't able to see all of the nominated movies this year but saw all of the nominees in the major categories and all of the shorts. There were 9 movies I wasn't able to see but I started with 46 so I'm happy with what I was able to, though I really wish I'd had time to watch Straight Outta Compton.
So without further ado, my Oscar Predictions:
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Category
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Who will win
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Who I want to win
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Best Picture
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Spotlight. I’ve been going
back and forth between The Revenant and Spotlight for weeks but I’m going
with my gut on this one. When I saw Spotlight last fall I thought it had a
good chance at being Best Picture so I’m sticking with my original intuition.
There’s also a chance that this could go to The Big Short which won at the
Producer’s Guild Awards.
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Three of my favorite movies of 2015 are up for Best Picture (The Martian,
Spotlight, Brooklyn) and I enjoyed watching most of the nominees (minus Mad Max
and The Revenant—neither is really my thing). And while I’ll be hoping
Spotlight wins for my Oscar pool my secret hope is an impossible win for Brooklyn. It was my very favorite
movie of last year and I know it doesn’t have a chance of winning but if it miraculously
did I would be ecstatic.
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Best Actor
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Leonardo DiCaprio. There
is no doubt in my mind that this is Leo’s year to win. In a year of weaker
lead actor performances his is by far the most outstanding and everyone
thinks he’s due a win.
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The Revenant was not my favorite movie (I am not a fan of lost in the
wilderness tales and it reminded me too much of Jack London stories and Jeremiah
Johnson) but Leonardo DiCaprio’s
performance was the best part. He’s been such a solid actor for over 20 years
and I’d watch him in just about anything so of course I’d love to see him
win.
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Best Actress
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Brie Larson. Here’s
another easy pick. At the start of Awards Season I thought this might be a
fight between Brie and Saoirse Ronan but at this point Larson is a lock to
win tonight. She’s been so charming this season too so I’m looking forward to
seeing her acceptance speech this evening.
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I will secretly be hoping for an Oscar shock win for Saoirse Ronan even though it won’t
happen. Brie Larson gives an amazing performance in Room but Saoirse Ronan is
transcendent in Brooklyn. She shows so much in just a look.
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Best Supporting Actor
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Sylvester Stallone. He is
the clear sentimental choice.
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I was surprised by how good Stallone was in Creed but I’d much rather
see either Mark Rylance or Mark
Ruffalo take home the gold tonight. I’ve said it before but Rylance was so
great in Bridge of Spies and I love a middle aged British man.
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Best Supporting Actress
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Outside of Best Picture this category has been the one I’ve been most
unsure about but I’m going to go with Alicia
Vikander. It’s just as likely that Kate Winslet could win though. But I
think Vikander has the edge because people liked her body of work this past
year.
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I really liked Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs and knew she’d get
nominated when I walked out of the theatre. However, Alicia Vikander was absolutely heartbreaking in The Danish Girl
and I thought she was great in Ex Machina too.
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Best Director
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Alejandro G. Iñárritu. It’s nearly unprecedented to have back to back directing wins but Iñárritu won at the director’s guild and in the second year of #OscarsSoWhite I have a feeling the voters will want to reward the most high profile diverse nominee in a major category. There’s also a chance that a sentimental vote could go to George Miller. |
I’ll be rooting for Tom
McCarthy for Spotlight and I’d also be happy to see Adam McKay win
considering The Big Short was such a departure from his previous broad
comedies.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
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The Big Short. Since Adam
McKay is not going to win as Best Director I think this is where The Academy
will reward him.
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Of course I’m going to root for Brooklyn
every chance I get. Plus I love Nick Hornby.
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Best Original Screenplay
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Spotlight. It won at the
writers guild and I think similarly to Adam McKay, this is where Tom McCarthy
will get his win.
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I thought the script of Spotlight
was great so I hope this wins.
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Best Cinematography
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The Revenant. I think
Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezki is going to win his third Oscar for cinematography
in a row.
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I think all of the nominees in this category are strong and I really
liked the cinematography in Sicario and Carol. But again, like with Leo, even
though I didn’t particularly like The Revenant,
the cinematography was breathtaking and considering what he did with Gravity
and Birdman the past two years respectively Lubezki is at the top of his
game.
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Best Animated Feature
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Inside Out. Pixar and
Disney are nearly impossible to beat in this category and a lot of people
loved the nostalgic tragedy of Inside Out.
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I only managed to see 3 of the 5 nominees in this category but if I
were voting on tonight’s awards my pick would have been Anomalisa. It’s far too strange a movie to actually win but I
thought Inside Out was not the best that Pixar has done.
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Best Documentary Feature
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Amy. The past few years
The Academy has either awarded super political or showbiz docs and with
nothing quite like CitezenFour this year I think Amy will come away with the
gold.
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I really liked all of the documentary nominees but I thought The Look of Silence was particularly
haunting and highlights a part of history most people don’t know about.
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Best Documentary Short
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Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of
the Shoah. I think the other short with a chance of winning in this
category is Body Team 12 but when in doubt choose the doc about the
Holocaust.
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Again, like with the Documentary Feature I liked all of these
documentaries but my favorite was Chau,
Beyond the Lines because it was one of the only ones that was hopeful at
the end.
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Best Live Action Short
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Shok. This was the Live
Action Short that struck me the most.
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Like the Documentary Shorts, these were mostly very heavy but I
thought even though Shok was
devastating it was wonderful.
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Best Animated Short
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World of Tomorrow. This dark
comedy is the most original in animation and subject matter.
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I’m going to root for World of
Tomorrow as well but I liked all of these except Prologue.
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Best Song
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“Til It Happens to You” from
The Hunting Ground. People want to see Lady Gaga win an Oscar.
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To be honest I really don’t care about this one this year. I just don’t
want that lame Sam Smith Bond movie song to win.
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Best Score
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The Hateful Eight. This is
Ennio Morricone’s night.
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My favorite score this year was Carter Burwell’s for Carol. It felt like another character
in the film.
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Best Costume Design
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I have to admit I’m really not sure about this one but after the win
at the BAFTAs I’m going to go with Mad
Max: Fury Road.
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I think Carol should get
this because the clothes are absolutely gorgeous in that movie and I really
don’t want Mad Max to win anything.
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Best Production Design
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Mad Max: Fury Road. I
think this could go somewhere else maybe but I think this will be part of the
technical sweep for Mad Max.
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I think Carol should have been nominated but without that I’d much
rather see The Danish Girl win
than Mad Max.
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
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Mad Max: Fury Road.
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Mad Max is going to win but I’d rather see The Revenant take it.
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Best Foreign Language Film
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Son of Saul. In a strong
year for Foreign Language Film this is a powerful and original movie.
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I’ve seen lots of Holocaust movies but I’ve never seen anything like Son of Saul before.
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Best Visual Effects
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens. This might be my biggest mistake but I
really think this might be the one win for Star Wars despite the technical
push for Mad Max.
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I think Star Wars: The Force
Awakens should have gotten a Best Picture nod so I’m rooting for Star
Wars all the way here.
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Best Editing
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I really don’t know with this one but I’m going to guess The Revenant.
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Again, I don’t know but I’ll go with rooting for Star Wars: The Force Awakens or Spotlight.
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Best Sound Mixing
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Mad Max: Fury Road.
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I never know what to do with sound. So Star Wars?
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Best Sound Editing
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Mad Max: Fury Road.
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I repeat.
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Well, it's now only a little over an hour to the big show. Can't wait to see what happens! I'm leaving for Florida for spring break in the morning so won't have a chance to write a follow up to the Oscars for a week or two but feel free to follow me on Twitter @mandaailey to see my reactions during the commercials tonight.
